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Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Jul 02, 3:59PM CDT

Front month corn futures saw some profit taking on Thursday after the runup from the first 3 days this week. At the closing bell for, futures were down 5 3/4 to 7 cents, with Sept and Dec the weakest. Private exporters reported a 202k MT sale of new crop corn to China. In this morning’s Export Sales report, corn bookings were 623,781 MT (24.577 mbu). That came via 14.21 mbu old crop sales, which were below estimates, and 10.34 mbu of new crop sales. Cumulative commitments through the first 43 weeks of the MY reached 1.666 bbu. That is down 13.5% yr/yr and 93.8% of the forecasted export total (5-yr avg is 100%). Census data through May show official corn exports MYTD are 1.228 bbu. May corn shipments were 224 mbu, which was 20% above 18/19. That was the second largest total for May on record. May DDG exports were a MY low, and a 10-year low for May at 601,029 MT. Ethanol shipments told a similar story, as the 67.5m gallons of ethanol shipped in May was the lowest for the month since 2014. May sorghum exports were a May record at 809,404 MT.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.42 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.43 1/2, down 7 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.53 1/2, down 7 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.65, down 6 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures ended the last trading day of the week down by 1/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower. From Friday’s close, July beans were 3.2% higher and Nov beans gained 4.1%. Soymeal futures recovered from midday losses and ended the Thursday session with gains of 50 to 80 cents. Soybean oil traded down by 25 to 27 points on the day, but July bean oil still closed 76 points higher on the week. USDA’s mandatory reporting system showed that China had bought 126,000 MT of new crop beans. In the weekly Export Sales report, old crop bean sales were 241,678 MT. New crop bean sales were above estimates at 841,650 MT. The total forward sales are up to 254.88 mbu, with China has booking 58.17% of the total. For soymeal, USDA reported sales at 143k MT for the week. That was up sharply yr/yr. Bean oil export sales were a 25-week low of 2,834 MT. Census data showed May soybean exports at 72.22 mbu bringing official MYTD exports to 1.36 bbu. Meal and oil exports for the month were 993k MT and 162k MT respectively. For bean oil, that was a MY high and the second largest May on record.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.92 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.91 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.90, down 1 1/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $293.50, up $0.80

Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $27.96, down $0.25

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Thursday trading ahead of the extended weekend left wheat futures lower. KC HRW futures were hit the hardest, closing down by 7 3/4 to 8 3/4 cents. July HRW futures were down 15 1/4 on Thursday but were still up 1.7% on the week. Chicago SRW wheat closed 5 3/4 to 8 3/4 cents lower, with Sept at $4.92/bu. The Sept MPLS/CHI premium shrank a half penny on Thursday to 18 1/4 cents. The other spring wheat futures were down 6 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents on Thursday. Weekly wheat export sales were on the high end of expectations, reported at 414,254 MT on the week ending June 25. That was down 20% wk/wk but exceeded the same week last year by 50%. Wheat shipments were 508,628 MT on the week bringing the MY total through week 4 to 1.878 MMT. Mexico (8k) and unknown (67k) had purchased 75,000 MT of 2021/22 wheat. Wheat Exports during the month of May were reported at 86.25 mbu. Census data showed that 2019/20 wheat exports were 5.8% above 2018/19. Thailand is seeking 236,800 MT of optional origin wheat in an international tender.

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.90, down 8 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.27 1/4, down 15 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.95 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures climbed $0.90 to $2.10 higher on Thursday. For August fats that added to the weekly gain of 4.7%. Feeder cattle futures climbed $1.55 to $1.82 higher in the front months. July 1 Feeder Cattle index was another 8 cents lower, at $129.05. USDA reported moderate Wednesday cash activity mostly at $95. On Wednesday, live cash sales went $95-96 in all feeding regions, and dressed sales were $154 to $155. USDA reported beef export sales at 12,326 MT on the week ending June 25. That was down 50% from last week, and down by 34% yr/yr. Beef shipments are back to even with 2019’s pace, as 381,827 MT have been shipped YTD through June 25. May beef shipments were 188.5m lbs. That was down 20% from April. Wholesale boxed beef prices strengthened on July 2. Choice boxes were up by 6 cents, and Select boxes were 33 cents higher. The Chc/Sel spread was $6.68, but Choice ribs were $20.32 above Select at $335.75 cwt. USDA’s estimate for FI cattle slaughter through Thursday is 484,000 head, which is not comparable to last year due to the holiday.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $99.400, up $2.100,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $102.675, up $2.000,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $105.925, up $1.425,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.875, up $1.800

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.850, up $1.825

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.700, up $1.800

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After trading the early portion of the session in the red, lean hog futures rallied back to the black closing higher on the day. July hogs were down by 7 cents at the closing bell, they expire on the 15th. The other front month futures gained 7 to 45 cents. The CME Lean Hog index for June 30 was 4 cents stronger at $45.28, a positive basis. The National Average Base Hog price was $28.66 yesterday, up by another 20 cents. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed pork bookings on the week ending June 25 at 39,151 MT. That was a 9-week high and up 66.5% yr/yr. Of the week’s pork sales, 55% were to China. China was the destination for 38% of the week’s pork shipments, bringing their YTD total to 401,1665 MT via the less comprehensive weekly report. Official export data for pork is 3.282b lbs through May, after Census reported the largest May on record of 617.8m lbs. That was down 4% from April, but the 12th consecutive monthly record. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $66.46 on Thursday afternoon. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter through Thursday at 1.867 million head. That is 21k head more wk/wk, but noncomparable to last year due to the holiday.

Jul 20 Hogs are at $44.725, down $0.075,

Aug 20 Hogs are at $49.200, up $0.125

Oct 20 Hogs are at $48.350, up $0.075

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures climbed back from midday lows, and closed 19 to 47 points higher in the front months. Old crop futures outgained the deferred contracts and left July inverted to Dec again, the July premium to December was 0.10 cents/lb. Dec to Mar ’21 carry was 72 points on Thursday. That came via 67,296 RBs of old crop sales and 246k RBs of new crop (mostly to China). Cotton exports from the report were 276,959 RBs. That is down 13% wk/wk and 19% below the same week last MY. China was the destination for 38% of the week’s shipments, MYTD China has been the destination for 15% of exports. Wednesday sales on the online cotton trading platform The Seam were the largest for a single day since May 08. The 8,347 bales went for an average gross price of 59.68 cents/lb. The weeks total through Wednesday was 10,735 bales at a wtd average price of 57.59 cents/lb. Tuesday went for an average gross price of 53.18 cents/lb. The July 1 Cotlook A index was 90 points stronger at 68.85 c/lb. The AWP for cotton was 53 points stronger at 50.13 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is 1.87 cents.

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 63.05, up 47 points,

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 63.55, up 47 points

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 62.95, up 19 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 63.67, up 22 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



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