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Ag Market Commentary
cmdty Insider - BRUG - Thu Oct 11, 5:20PM CDT

Corn futures ended the Thursday session with most contracts 6 to 7 cents higher, following some friendly USDA numbers. NASS tallied 18/19 US corn yield at 180.7 bpa, which was down 0.6 bpa from September and below trade estimates. That took production to 14.778 bbu, down 51 mbu as harvested acreage was just 3,000 acres lower. USDA projects that the current MY carryout will total 1.813 bbu, up 39 mbu from last month but still well (106 mbu) shy of trade expectations. World ending stocks were on par with projections coming in at 159.35 MMT. Analysts are expecting Friday’s Export Sales report to show 1-1.5 MMT in 18/19 corn export sales. EIA data released this morning showed 1.04 million barrels of ethanol per day was produced in the week of 10/5. That was up 25,000 bpd from the week prior, as stocks grew by 576,000 barrels to 24.021 million barrels. CONAB released initial projections for Brazil corn production on Thursday, with 18/19 seen at 89.734-91.084 MMT and USDA currently at 94.5 MMT.

DEC 18 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

MAY 19 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents

JUL 19 Corn closed at $3.94, up 6 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Soybean futures closed with most contracts 6 to 6 1/2 cents in the green, after USDA numbers weren’t as bearish as traders had anticipated. Nearby soy meal was up 80 cents/ton, with soy oil up 8 points. This morning’s Crop Production report indicated 2018 projected US soybean yield @ 53.1 bpa, up 0.3 from the month previous. Harvested acreage was trimmed by 514,000 acres to 88.348 million acres, which left production down 3 mbu from September at 4.69 bbu. Ending stocks were increased by 40 mbu to 885 mbu on the larger carryover from 17/18, still 13 mbu lower than estimates. USDA now sees 18/19 world carryout at 110.04 MMT, 1.78 MMT larger than Sept. Brazil production projections for 18/19 range from 117.05 to 119.428 MMT according to a CONAB report released this morning. USDA is currently at 120.5 MMT. Soybean export sales in the week of 10/4 are estimated at 0.8-1.3 MMT. Soy meal sales are seen at 150,000-450,000 MT, with oil at 5,000-26,000 MT. USDA will report on Friday morning.

NOV 18 Soybeans closed at $8.58 1/4, up 6 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.72 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.85, up 6 1/4 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans closed at $8.98 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal closed at $312.80, up $0.80,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.73, up $0.08

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Wheat futures saw 1 to 4 cent losses in most contracts on Thursday. USDA made a few changes to their 18/19 US wheat balance sheet by upping production to 1.884 bbu as seen in the Small Grains report. They left their export projection at 1.025 bbu, while ending stocks were 21 mbu higher at 956 mbu and slightly under estimates. World ending stocks were trimmed to 260.18 MMT, down 1.11 MMT from last month and below most published trade estimates. Australian production was trimmed by 1.5 to 18.5 MMT and Russia was down 1 to 70 MMT. Trade estimates for export sales in the week of 10/4 are running 300,000-600,000 MT ahead of Friday’s report.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.08, down 2 1/2 cents,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.13 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.89 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330

Live cattle futures were steady to 77.5 cents higher in the front months, with back months lower. Feeder cattle futures were up in the nearby contracts, with most deferred contracts in the red. The CME feeder cattle index was down a penny on October 10 at $158.37. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 40 cents to $202.41, while Select boxes were 72 cents higher at $192.49. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 468,000 head through Thursday. That was down 10,000 head from last week and 3,000 from the same week in 2017. A few cash cattle sales were reported on Thursday, mostly around $111. US beef production for 2018 was trimmed by 150 million pounds to 26.944 billion pounds in the WASDE report. A 190 million lb reduction to 4th quarter production was offset a 40 million lb jump in the 3rd quarter. Production for 2019 was raised by 190 million lbs to 27.910 billion pounds.

OCT 18 Cattle closed at $112.850, up $0.775,

DEC 18 Cattle closed at $116.975, up $0.500,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $121.500, up $0.050,

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $156.850, up $0.950

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $156.800, up $0.625

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.675, down $0.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Lean hog futures posted triple digit losses in most contracts in Thursday, with nearby Oct up 20 cents. October needs to stick close to the cash index due to Friday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was up a penny on October 9 to $69.34. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 59 cents lower on Thursday afternoon at $78.61. The national base hog carcass value was 73 cents lower this afternoon at $61.92. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1.862 million head WTD through Thursday. That is up 1,000 head from last week and 17,000 head above the same week last year. USDA estimated pork production for 2018 was cut by 250 million pounds to 26.425 billion pounds, on large reductions to 3rd and 4th quarter production. Estimated pork production for 2019 was trimmed 65 million lbs to 27.81 billion pounds.

OCT 18 Hogs closed at $68.675, up $0.200,

DEC 18 Hogs closed at $54.425, down $1.525

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $62.425, down $2.100

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Cotton futures settled with most contracts steady to 20 points higher on Thursday. NASS added 80,000 bales to the US production number on Thursday @ 19.76 million bales, with slightly lower acreage but yield up 6 lbs to 901 lb/ac. Ending stocks were up 300,000 bales to 5 million on a reduction to projected exports. World carryout for 18/19 was trimmed by 3 million bales to 77.45 million bales, mainly on historical revisions to India. The Cotton Ginnings report showed that 1.287 million bales had been ginned as of 10/1, 3% larger than the same time last year. Cotlook A index down 50 points from the previous day at 86.35 cents/lb on October 10. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 67.73 cents/lb, down 14 points from the week prior.

DEC 18 Cotton closed at 76815, up 1 points,

MAR 18 Cotton closed at 78.1, up 6 points

MAY 19 Cotton closed at 79.06, up 20 points

JUL 19 Cotton closed at 79.59, up 7 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

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